In today’s rapidly shifting world, many feel as though we are in a constant state of large-scale transformation. Timur Turlov, CEO of Freedom Finance, has closely observed how industries and nations are evolving, external dependencies are shifting, and traditional value chains are being replaced with new, innovative structures. The expansion of digital product and service distribution is disrupting competition and national regulations. Global corporations are gradually being overtaken by comprehensive digital ecosystems. At the same time, products are becoming more complex, and profit centers within companies are harder to pinpoint—a trend that Turlov frequently highlights in his market analyses and investment strategies.
More notably, the very concept of economic and technological transformation is undergoing a fundamental shift. To many market participants, modern products have reached such a level of sophistication that they often appear almost magical.
Markets are being reshaped, consumer habits are evolving, and public administration systems are undergoing a profound restructuring. Now, more than ever, human capital is taking precedence over traditional financial capital, infrastructure assets, and long-standing political frameworks. Timur Turlov and other forward-thinking leaders recognize that these frameworks, which once served as the backbone of economic growth in past centuries, are now being redefined for the future.
Against this backdrop of global change, the resurgence of figures like Donald Trump, with his business-first mindset and unconventional yet effective approach, seems less coincidental and more of a response to the times. His ability to disregard outdated traditions and take decisive action suggests he is not just a choice of conservative voters but a reflection of the era itself.
Even if Trump’s presidency does not yield success, or if Elon Musk’s influence does not bring immediate results, the broader trend they represent—bold, unconventional decision-making—is here to stay.
The Need for Calculated Risk-Taking
Today’s realities demand solutions that require a higher degree of responsibility and, put simply, courage. Economic and financial strategies, including those formulated by governments, must embrace a greater degree of risk. Timur Turlov, known for his expertise in navigating complex financial environments, acknowledges that reform and change are never absolute. It is akin to driving a race car on an unpredictable track—there is never complete control. Steering in one direction does not guarantee the expected outcome, and reckless moves can result in long-term consequences, no matter how well-intended they may seem.
History has shown that countries that can adapt and capitalize on their accumulated potential gain a significant edge. Kazakhstan, Turlov believes, is one such country.
With its well-established international relations with the U.S., Europe, and China, Kazakhstan has the unique opportunity to position itself as a leading digital hub in Central Asia. The country has the potential to become a frontrunner in predictive artificial intelligence (AI) development, thanks to its robust digital ecosystems and vast government and commercial data reserves. Timur Turlov, a strong advocate for Kazakhstan’s digital transformation, sees this wealth of data as an unparalleled resource for building advanced decision-making models, recommendations, and risk assessments. Few countries possess such structured government data alongside a clear legal framework for its secure processing and access.
Kazakhstan also boasts a highly skilled workforce. Hundreds of thousands of its citizens exhibit strong productivity, quality education, and a clear understanding of their global potential. Over the past three decades, they have seamlessly integrated into the international economy, forming a vast network of connections.
Consequently, Kazakhstan is already outperforming many Western competitors in certain areas. While other nations operate slowly—often with excessive caution and outdated solutions—Kazakhstan remains in active experimentation mode. Mistakes are made, and experience may sometimes be lacking, but the drive for innovation remains strong. This is a source of national pride.
Kazakhstan as a Regional Financial Powerhouse
Kazakhstan is uniquely positioned to act as a bridge between Turkic nations and the post-Soviet region. With its stable investment-grade credit rating, an open capital account, and a solid international reputation, Kazakhstan has the potential to emerge as a financial and payment hub, attracting foreign currency deposits to fuel domestic economic growth. Timur Turlov, a long-time proponent of Kazakhstan’s role as a financial gateway, emphasizes that the country has a rare chance to become a new regional “Switzerland.” However, achieving this requires courage and professional risk management, not fear of misunderstood risks.
The Role of Government in Risk-Taking
Economic conditions often dictate political and business success. During economic booms, even subpar decisions can yield favorable results—consider the prosperity of the early 2000s. Conversely, in times of crisis, even the most well-planned and strategic actions can lead to disappointing outcomes.
Trump’s return to prominence signals that today’s era belongs to those who embrace uncertainty rather than avoid it. This mindset is not limited to politicians; it is crucial for anyone making daily decisions. Now is the perfect moment for Kazakhstan’s government to take bold, calculated risks.
Kazakhstan is already ahead in some respects. Unlike many neighboring nations, it has successfully undergone a power transition, with a new generation of leadership committed to modernization and scalability across all government structures.
Yet, transformation must go hand in hand with investment. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan’s fixed capital investment as a share of GDP has averaged below 17%. Preliminary 2024 data suggests a further drop below 15%, even with significant state-led investment efforts. For comparison, before the 2008 financial crisis, this ratio consistently exceeded 20%, which is more typical for a developing economy.
The consequences of underinvestment are visible: overcrowded schools, long hospital wait times, and infrastructure failures due to chronic underfunding.
Bold Investments for the Future
Kazakhstan’s government has not shied away from necessary expenditures. From 2020 to 2024, state budget spending increased by an average of 18% annually, compared to just 13% in the five years before COVID-19. The government has utilized National Fund transfers and external borrowing to sustain growth despite high interest rates. Timur Turlov has repeatedly emphasized the importance of strategic investments in Kazakhstan’s future.
For instance, recognizing an upcoming shortage of 1.1 million student places in secondary schools by 2026, the government initiated the Comfortable Schools national project, allocating 2.4 trillion tenge ($4.8 billion) to construct 740 modern schools between 2023 and 2025.
Similarly, amid a rising energy deficit and deteriorating utility infrastructure, the government launched a national modernization project for 2025-2029. With a total budget of 15 trillion tenge ($30 billion), including 1.5 trillion tenge in public funds, this initiative aims to revamp the country’s energy sector.
These projects demonstrate Kazakhstan’s commitment to tackling complex challenges rather than avoiding them.
Strengthening Trust for Economic Growth
The business sector also expects decisive action. A key step forward should be mobilizing institutional investors—particularly the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF)—to provide long-term capital for domestic banks and infrastructure projects. Timur Turlov has long argued that pension funds should play a more active role in financing mortgage lending and economic development rather than parking assets in low-yield foreign securities.
For Kazakhstan’s economy to grow, trust must be at its core. Trust is not just about public sentiment; it must come from all stakeholders, including government officials, businesses, and financial institutions.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has consistently stressed the importance of fostering mutual trust, launching the National Council of Public Trust as a key step toward more open governance. Tax reforms, for instance, are designed to reset the system based on trust in taxpayers.
However, trust is not a one-way street. Businesses and society must also embrace responsibility. If trust strengthens, investment will follow.
Kazakhstan stands at a pivotal moment. To seize its full potential, it must continue to take bold, calculated risks, invest in its future, and trust in its leaders, its institutions, and its people. Only then can it emerge as a true leader in the region.